Job Market Paper
Salience, Misperceptions and Trade-offs in Agricultural Technology Adoption: Experimental Evidence from Uganda — AEA RCT Registry
Abstract
Farmers often cannot identify which crop varieties they grow or what traits those varieties carry. We show that this misidentification is a first-order constraint on technology adoption. In a randomized controlled trial with 2,141 sweet potato farmers across 108 Ugandan villages, we use DNA fingerprinting both to measure varieties and their traits objectively and to deliver that information back to farmers as the intervention itself. General information that raises the salience of nutrition and disease-resistance traits improves farmers' knowledge but does not change what they plant. Personalized DNA-based feedback—telling farmers which of their own varieties carry which traits—raises the area planted to advantageous varieties by 25 to 59 percent. Salience alone is insufficient because farmers rarely observe that desirable traits co-occur and so wrongly believe these traits trade off against one another; only feedback that reveals which varieties combine them shifts planting. Among children under two, this feedback raises consumption of vitamin A–rich sweet potato and cuts diarrhea incidence by 53 percent, with similar gains for untreated neighbors. By connecting objectively measured varietal adoption to downstream child-health outcomes, the results provide causal evidence that agricultural technology decisions are a lever for child nutrition.Working Papers
Economic, Cultural and Taste-Based Constraints to the Scaling of Climate-Resilient Biofortified Maize in Guatemala — AEA RCT Registry — IDB Working Paper with Karen Macours and Jessica Rudder
Abstract
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of a series of demand and supply side interventions to increase the reach of biofortified maize seeds among diverse smallholder populations in Guatemala. We introduce experimental variation in demand-side subsidies and information designed to encourage farmers to try the biofortified climate-resilient seeds, and supply-side subsidies for agrodealers to promote the seeds to a wider customer base. Subsidizing agrodealers can leverage market incentives, while demand-side interventions are more traditional policy tools. We study the effect of these scaling approaches on short-term uptake, longer-term willingness-to-pay and sustained adoption by different types of farmers.You Reap What (You Think) You Sow? Misperceptions of Improved Maize Varieties in Ethiopia — PSE Working Paper
Abstract
Adoption of improved seed varieties has the potential to substantially increase agricultural productivity. However, only 23 percent of farmers who grow an improved maize variety report doing so in Ethiopia. This paper provides causal evidence of the impact of misperceptions about improved maize varieties on farmers' production decisions, productivity, and profitability. I employ an instrumental variable approach, taking advantage of the roll-out of a governmental program that increases transparency in the seed sector. I find that farmers who correctly classify the improved maize variety they grow experience large increases in input usage (urea, NPS, labor), yields, and profits per hectare. Using machine learning techniques, I develop a model of interpolation to predict objectively measured varietal identification from farmers' self-reported data, providing a proof-of-concept for scalable approaches to obtaining reliable measures of crop varieties.Large-Scale Roll-Out and Impacts of Biofortified Crop Varieties in Uganda with Karen Macours and Julius Okello
Abstract
Hidden hunger has been identified as a key threat to human capital accumulation and long-term welfare in many low- and middle-income countries. This paper provides some of the first causal evidence of vitamin-A enhanced sweet potato on children's longer-term wellbeing. Results based on national-level roll-out data of sweet potato vine distribution show that exposure to orange flesh sweet potato during the earliest years of life leads to long-term gains in height-for-age scores. Evidence along the causal chain helps interpret this finding, as distribution of vines in a subcounty leads to larger presence of yellow and orange varieties in farmers' fields, to higher consumption of vitamin-A rich foods, and to lower morbidity at the age of 5.Landscape-Level Ecological Effects of Breeding for SPVD and Dual-Purpose Sweet Potato Varieties in Uganda with Karen Macours and Julius Okello
Biodiversity and Sweetpotato Breeding in Uganda with Karen Macours and Julius Okello
Publications
Alemu, S., Kosmowski, F., Stevenson, J., Mallia, P., Taye, L., Macours, K. (2024). Studying inclusive innovation with the right data: An empirical illustration from Ethiopia. Agricultural Systems, 219, 103988. Link
Work in Progress
Labelling Microloans for Climate Adaptation in Uganda with Marcelo Gantier Mita